Well I thought I fixed it, but I didn't. I just broke my second primary belt.
https://youtu.be/jJkxB3nuClM
Looks like the p/s pump is causing the belt to walk off the next inline idler.
Wrong again. I pulled the belt off my dads 2010 and the p/s pump has the same amount of play.
Update: The threads on the nut that bolts the lower part of s/c tensioner came apart and was causing the tensioner assy to twist just enough under a load to walk the belt off of the no.2 idler, I guess. I replaced the stripped nut and so far it's holding up.
does this look like the original fastener for the s/c tensioner? It's a 17mm.